Will China's one-child policy hurt its economic competitiveness in the decades to come? Alice Yan in the SCMP reports:
The mainland population is ageing at a phenomenal rate under the one-child policy and will reach a peak of 1.45 billion in about 20 years, according to a report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This anticipated figure is lower than the 1.6 billion peak international forecasters have been predicting for 2050.
But population analysts are considering whether the policy should be loosened because the country is ageing faster than expected. They say the situation will worsen as the number of retired workers grows and the pool of people paying into pension funds shrinks.
Zeng Yi , from Peking University's China Centre for Economic Research, estimated that if the one-child policy remained in place, the population would decline dramatically after the 2025 peak and drop by 100 million every decade between 2030 and 2080.
After 2025, people 65 or over would account for at least 20 per cent of the population, more than double the ratio now.
"There is no doubt that a rapid decrease in the population will result in not only ageing problems but other serious problems like labour shortages," Professor Zeng said. "There will also be insufficient funds to cover social insurance and pensions, economic gloom and huge burdens on the education and health care sectors.
"If we maintain the present family planning policy, China will see its labour source shrink quickly and lose its comparative advantage for economic development."
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