Frank Ching writes in the Japan Times:
Each year, China announces before yearend what its growth is for that year. This does not enhance confidence in Chinese figures. After all, it takes time for the different provinces to assemble their figures and send them to Beijing, where they are aggregated.
What is even stranger is that the figure announced is never the sum of those sent in by the provinces. The figure is always less, betraying a belief in Beijing that provincial figures cannot be trusted. So what one has, at the end, is an estimate based on Beijing's best guess of the extent to which various provinces have inflated their figures.
For the first half of 2006, all China's provinces reported double-digit growth, with an overall growth rate of 12 percent. However, the National Bureau of Statistics put the country's growth at 10.9 percent -- 1.1 percent less -- discounting $ 10.06 billion in growth.
What is even stranger is that the figure announced is never the sum of those sent in by the provinces. The figure is always less, betraying a belief in Beijing that provincial figures cannot be trusted. So what one has, at the end, is an estimate based on Beijing's best guess of the extent to which various provinces have inflated their figures.
Local statisticians know which side their bread is buttered on. Local governments pay them and decide if and when they should be promoted. Changing this situation should result in more reliable figures.
To read more:
http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=51227
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