David at the Silk Road International blog writes:
I'm firmly ensconced on the fence when it comes to China and it's future—I love my family and my friends here but can't imaging a more amoral environment to work in. I am so grateful to be here and to still have business in the current economy, but working here is dangerous, unhealthy and difficult. I see the market growing incredibly but think that the bubble is scary-huge already. 8% GDP growth is amazing, but the current plan of government spending and exports isn’t sustainable. So, knowing where I stand, you'll understand why I say it's rare that I find multiple articles that I think are really well written (in terms of perspective and research) and also immediately valuable for use in business and/or personal investment or planning. The two links below are both.
Long time readers will also know that I doubt that the China is the next “superpower.” But I do completely agree with and believe that China should and will be the largest economy on the planet—just getting 1.5 billion people to a respectable level of education and income will demand that it be so—the world just needs to get used to that. But China is not there yet, as this FP article points out. And there are many issues (increasing poverty, decreasing education) that have been getting worse not better in the last 20 years; hence my uncertainty about China’s future. The combination of so many factors leads me to the conclusion that there are serious troubles ahead for China. For the sake of my family and business (and other people too) I hope that I'm wrong.
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